Watered Down World Cup?
48 Teams. Half of them shouldn't even be there. And all because FIFA's cash cow has made it so. It's great to see new countries making it to the World Cup or even returning to the World stage again but it shouldn't be at the expense of quality. 12 groups of 4 equates to 72 matches in the group stages and because of the watered down field we're looking at around 10 games that are likely to be worth watching. However, we will watch. And we'll probably watch the lot.
I'd love to see 1 or 2 of the 'big nations' drop out in the group stage but it's incredibly unlikely isn't it. There's at least one whipping boy in every group and with qualification taking the top 2 from each, along with eight of the next best third place teams, it's going to take a few seismic upsets to see any of the World's best fail to advance. Let's talk about the groups.
Group A - Mexico • South Africa • South Korea • Czechia
I mean, have you ever seen a worse World Cup group than that? There aren't even any half reasonable nations in there. South Korea are the only ones that have been further than the first knockout phase in the last 30 years and that was in their home country. They were practically gifted a place at this summer's tournament too when you look at their qualifying group. China, Thailand and Singapore. Christ...
Group B - Canada • Bosnia • Qatar • Switzerland
For crying out loud... If the Swiss don't walk all over this group something fishy is going on. Who's staying up until 11pm to watch Canada v Qatar? It's already in my diary... I'm not allowed to use emoji's but rest assured, if I could, I'd have used multiple eye roles by now. Bosnia are here on merit after a really impressive play off win over the Italians. They might take second.
Group C - Brazil • Scotland • Haiti • Morocco
Ok, a half decent group. If the Scots turn up like they did in qualification and Morocco are anything like the team that saw them become the first African Nation to reach a World Cup Semi Final in 2022, then we may genuinely have our first competitive group. Brazil don't look anything like the teams of 2002 and before, but you just never know with the Samba Boys. Any side that includes Vinicius Jr have a semi decent chance of doing good things. Whether you like him or not.
Group D - USA • Paraguay • Australia • Turkiye
Firstly, why are we suddenly having to say and spell Turkey differently? It's not a new country. Who are we trying to please? I know you're thinking, 'I thought this was a world cup post' but honestly, this is a better subject than talking about the quality (or lack of) in this group. Turkeyaaahhh should win it as they're the only reasonable team amongst the four. The other three teams will have to battle it out for the second qualification spot.
Group E - Germany • Ivory Coast • Ecuador • Curacao
Will Cote d'Ivoire turn up like we know they can? There's a strong set of players in their ranks and they have the ability to cause an upset. However, I don't see it. The Germans have been rebuilding quietly over the last few years and whilst they're not the finished article by any stretch of the imagination, they'll make it out of this group and once the knockout's start, most nations won't want to play them. Ecuador finished second in South American qualifying losing just 2 games and conceeding just 5 goals in 18 games along the way. That's very impressive when you consider the nations they were up against.
Group F - Netherlands • Japan • Sweden • Tunisia
Sweden have Isak, Elanga & Gyokeres up top. Three of the most expensive Premier League transfers from last season. They should have walked through qualifying. But they didn't. They lost home and away to Kosovo along the way and then had to scrap their way through the Play-Offs. However, now they're in the tournament, I can see them getting through the group. Japan are strong though and we all know what Netherlands bring to the party. This group could easily end in a 3-way tie on 6 points.
Group G - Belgium • Egypt • Iran • New Zealand
Standard wise, this group will be up there as one of the worst. Belgium had a great team 10-12 years ago. But that golden generation have barely been replaced. Most are still in the squad. Some still in the starting 11. Their time has passed. Egypt will look to Salah and Marmoush to spring a suprise and see them through the group and in reality, they should get through. Potentially with the Belgians. Incase you're interested, Iran v New Zealand is on at 2am UK time. I think I'll watch the highlights. If there is one.
Group H - Spain • Uruguay • Cape Verde • Saudi Arabia
The first time we see 2 half decent nations in the same group. Spain are obviously more than half decent and Uruguay can be as they showed in the game with England recently. The Saudi's will not be a walkover for anyone despite that being the expectation. They were strong enough to come from behind to beat Argentina in 2022 so don't be surprised if they create a shock here.
Group I - France • Senegal • Norway • Iraq
Ok, write off Iraq. Now, let's discuss the other three sides. France will be strong and they're going to take some beating, but one slip in the group stage and it might end up being an early flight home. Norway are one of the most improved nations in the last 2 years and will obviously look to Erling Haaland to help fire them into the knockout stages whilst Senegal could easily disrupt the establishment. The group to watch.
Group J - Argentina • Algeria • Austria • Jordan
I struggle to see Jordan getting a single point. The defending champions Argentina are drawn into a relatively good group here and shouldn't have any trouble finding their way through to the last 32. Austria should be the toughest game for them, though Algeria will certainly put up a fight and I expect the game between those two to be the most important in terms of qualifying.
Group K - Portugal • Colombia • DR Congo • Uzbekistan
Well, it's fair to say that Portugal have done ok here isn't it? Colombia finished third in their qualifying group, above Brazil, but loses to Ecuador and Bolivia along with poor performances and dropped points against Peru and Paraguay speak volumes. DR Congo could end up pipping Colombia to second in my opinion. Uzbekistan are likely to be the also-rans.
Group L - England • Croatia • Ghana • Panama
We expect Panama to be the whipping boys. With that exception, England come into the tournament as second favourites to lift the trophy. Not in my view, but that's what the bookies are saying. Croatia, muchlike Belgium, had a great side 10 years ago but the young talent hasn't been coming through to replace the now ageing squad. Kramaric is 34, Modric is 40, Perisic is 37, Budimir is also 34. Not to say any of these couldn't still do a job. For example, Modric has started 32 games in the AC Milan midfield this season. Ghana ahve some good individual players but as a team, they shouldn't have enough to stop Englad and Croatia taking the top two places.
Who wins?
A process of elimination brings me down to 8 possibilities. Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain, Netherlands, England, Germany and Portugal.
Once you start to dig a little deeper into them I think you can eliminate a couple more. Germany aren't quite there yet. They will be strong but when you think back to the teams of yesteryear, they're not a patch are they. Netherlands have strength in certain positions but not as a full team and I think that rules them out aswell. So we're down to six.
England, France, Portugal and Spain will all face the same issues. The climate. But I don't think that necesarily rules them out. If Portugal don't just stick with Ronaldo up top, I genuinely believe they could go all the way. But it's hard to see them dropping him and they're just not capable if they play him in every game because the World Cup is won by a team and not an individual. England have their own internal demons to fight but they're getting closer with every tournament that passes. France and Spain have both won it in recent times and therefore know how to get the job done.
That leaves the two South American countries. Argentina as the defending champions are going to take some stopping and Brazil will turn up. No matter how poor they looked in qualifying. Both have the benefit of knowing how to play in the searing temperatures they're going to experience. And that could be vital.
So who wins?
It's such a tough call but I'm going to go with France. Providing they can steer clear of the usual in-house issues, they just look incredibly strong in every position and I don't see them being beaten as a result.
